The Japanese Grand Prix could mark a historic milestone for Marc Marquez, who has the chance to lock down his ninth title and the 2025 MotoGP championship with five rounds still remaining.
No rider in premier-class history has ever sealed the title this early.
The equation looked more complicated before the weekend began.
Coming into Motegi, Marquez needed to outscore his younger brother Alex by at least three points to be crowned champion.
But Saturday’s sprint race shifted the balance heavily in his favour.
By finishing eight positions clear of Alex, Marc gained a nine-point swing, leaving Alex with quite a big task on Sunday should he want to take the title ‘fight’ to Indonesia.
What Happens if Marc Finishes in Xth Position
If Marc is 1st or 2nd, champion regardless of Alex
If Marc is 3rd, champion unless Alex wins
If Marc is 4th, 5th or 6th, champion unless Alex is 2nd or better
If Marc is 7th, 8th or 9th, champion unless Alex is 3rd or better
If Marc is 10th or 11th, champion unless Alex is 4th or better
If Marc is 12th, champion unless Alex is 5th or better
If Marc is 13th, champion unless Alex is 6th or better
If Marc is 14th, champion unless Alex is 7th or better
If Marc is 15th, champion unless Alex is 8th or better
If Marc is 16th or lower, champion unless Alex is 9th or better
Now, the situation is simple: Marc must only ensure that Alex does not take more than seven points out of him in the main race.
The starting grid adds another advantage, with Alex beginning five places further back and showing no signs of recovering in the sprint.
Clinching the title at Motegi would leave five rounds still to run. That would mark the earliest championship in premier-class history.
Marquez stressed that sealing the title is the only priority.
“I prefer to close the championship. Doesn’t matter about the position.”
What Marc Needs to Do (Based on Alex’s Finish)
If Alex wins, Marc must be 2nd
If Alex is 2nd, Marc must be 3rd or better
If Alex is 3rd, Marc must be 6th or better
If Alex is 4th, Marc must be 9th or better
If Alex is 5th, Marc must be 11th or better
If Alex is 6th, Marc must be 12th or better
If Alex is 7th, Marc must be 13th or better
If Alex is 8th, Marc must be 14th or better
If Alex is 9th, Marc must be 15th or better
If Alex is 10th or lower, Marc is champion
